You Already Make Predictions. Now Get Paid for Being Right.
Every day you make predictions about crypto. You think SOL will bounce back. You think Bitcoin will break its all-time high before summer. You think that hyped L2 launch will flop.
You share these takes on Twitter. You argue about them in Telegram. You feel vindicated when you're right and quietly move on when you're wrong.
What if you could put money behind those predictions — and get paid when you're right?
That's what prediction markets do. And they're now live on StakePoint.
What Are Prediction Markets?
A prediction market creates a simple question with two outcomes. You pick a side and bet SOL on it. If your side wins, you split the pot with everyone else who was right.
Example:
*Will $SOL exceed $100 by the end of the week?*
- 🟢 Yes — currently 40% of the pool
- 🔴 No — currently 60% of the pool
You think SOL will push past $100, so you bet 1 SOL on Yes. The pool now has 10 SOL total.
End of the week arrives. SOL hits $103.
Yes wins. The entire pool (minus a 10% platform fee) gets split proportionally among Yes bettors based on how much they bet. You put in 1 SOL out of 4 SOL on the Yes side, so you get 25% of the net pool.
Your 1 SOL just turned into 2.25 SOL.
The people who bet No? They lose their stake. That's what funds your payout.
How Payouts Actually Work
This is where most people get confused, so let's break it down clearly.
The formula is simple:
Total pool = all bets from both sides
Platform takes 10% fee from the total pool
Net pool = total pool minus fee
Your share = (your bet ÷ winning side total) × net pool
Real example with numbers:
| Side | Total Bets |
|---|---|
| Yes | 4 SOL |
| No | 6 SOL |
| Total Pool | 10 SOL |
Platform fee: 1 SOL (10%)
Net pool: 9 SOL
If Yes wins and you bet 1 SOL on Yes:
- Your share: 1 ÷ 4 = 25%
- Your payout: 25% × 9 = 2.25 SOL
- Your profit: 1.25 SOL (125% return)
If No wins and you bet 1 SOL on No:
- Your share: 1 ÷ 6 = 16.7%
- Your payout: 16.7% × 9 = 1.5 SOL
- Your profit: 0.5 SOL (50% return)
Notice something? Betting on the less popular side pays more. This is the key insight that smart bettors exploit.
Why the Unpopular Side Is Often the Smart Bet
When 80% of the pool is on one side, the market is telling you something — but it might be wrong.
The maths favour the contrarian:
| Pool Split | Bet on Majority Side | Bet on Minority Side |
|---|---|---|
| 50/50 | 0.8x return | 0.8x return |
| 70/30 | 0.29x return | 1.1x return |
| 90/10 | 0x return | 7.1x return |
When a market is 90/10, betting 1 SOL on the minority side and winning returns over 8 SOL. Betting on the majority side barely breaks even.
This doesn't mean you should always bet against the crowd. It means you should think about whether the crowd is right enough to justify the low payout.
If a market asks "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" and it's 95/5, obviously bet with the majority. But most crypto predictions aren't that certain.
Two Ways to Predict on StakePoint
StakePoint offers two types of prediction games:
1. Price Prediction (Automated)
This runs on a fixed 12-hour cycle. Pick whether SOL, BTC, or ETH will go up or down.
How it works:
- Two rounds per day: 00:00–12:00 UTC and 12:00–00:00 UTC
- Betting is open for the first 11.5 hours
- Price locks 30 minutes before the round ends
- If closing price > lock price, UP wins
- If closing price < lock price, DOWN wins
Fully automated. No admin involvement. Prices come from Pyth Network oracle. Results are determined by on-chain data. Winnings can be claimed anytime with no expiry.
This is for people who want to bet on short-term price action.
2. Custom Prediction Markets (Curated)
These are specific questions about real-world events. Each market has a deadline and is manually resolved when the outcome is known.
Examples of markets we run:
- Will $SOL exceed $100 by the end of the week?
- Will Bitcoin hit a new ATH in February?
- Will Ethereum flip Solana in daily DEX volume this month?
- Will a new Solana memecoin hit $1B market cap before March?
Markets have images, custom options (not just Yes/No), and deadlines. When the outcome is known, the market is resolved and winners can claim.
New markets are announced in our Telegram group with the market image and a direct link to bet.
How to Place a Bet (Step by Step)
It takes under 30 seconds:
Go to stakepoint.app/predict
Click the Markets tab to see open prediction markets
Pick your side — click the green or red button
Enter your amount — use the quick buttons (0.1, 0.5, 1, 5 SOL) or type custom
Check the payout estimate — the modal shows your estimated return if you win
Confirm the transaction in your wallet
Done — your bet is recorded on-chain
You can see your active bets on each market card. When a market resolves in your favour, an "Unclaimed Winnings" banner appears. Click claim and the SOL is sent to your wallet.
What Happens If a Market Gets Cancelled?
Sometimes a market needs to be cancelled — maybe the question becomes irrelevant, or circumstances change dramatically.
If a market is cancelled, everyone gets a full refund. No fee. Your exact bet amount is returned. You'll see a "Refundable Bets" banner on the predict page.
Strategy Tips for Prediction Markets
Tip 1: Bet early when the pool is small
Your share of the winning side is based on how much you bet relative to the total on that side. Betting early when the pool is small means your proportion is larger.
Tip 2: Watch the pool split, not just the question
A market where you're 60% sure Yes will win but the pool is 90% on Yes is a bad bet. The payout doesn't justify the risk. A market where you're 60% sure and the pool is 40% on your side? That's value.
Tip 3: Don't bet your whole stack on one market
Spread across multiple markets. Even if you're right 60% of the time, one bad bet shouldn't wipe your gains.
Tip 4: Follow the news
Custom markets are based on real events. If you're plugged into crypto Twitter and see a catalyst coming that the market hasn't priced in, that's your edge.
Tip 5: Use the payout calculator
When you open the bet modal, it shows your estimated payout based on the current pool. Use this. If the multiplier is below 1.2x, you're barely beating the 10% fee.
The Edge Over Traditional Betting
Why prediction markets on Solana instead of a regular betting site?
Transparent pools. You can see exactly how much is on each side before you bet. No hidden house edge. No odds manipulation.
No KYC. Connect your Solana wallet and bet. No ID verification, no account creation, no withdrawal limits.
Instant settlement. Markets resolve and you claim. SOL hits your wallet in seconds. No "processing" for 3-5 business days.
Provably fair. For price predictions, the oracle determines the result. For custom markets, the outcome is based on publicly verifiable events. No disputes.
Low fees. 10% on the winning pot only. If you lose, you pay nothing extra. Compare that to traditional bookmakers taking 5-15% vig on every bet.
What's Coming Next
Prediction markets on StakePoint are just getting started. Here's what's on the roadmap:
- More market types — multi-option markets (not just binary), range bets
- Community-created markets — propose and vote on new markets
- Leaderboards — track the best predictors
- Market sharing — share your bets on Twitter with dynamic OG cards showing your position
Start Predicting
You already have opinions about what's going to happen in crypto. The only difference between you and someone making money from those opinions is action.
The first step:
Browse open markets → stakepoint.app/predict
Pick a side you believe in
Bet as little as 0.001 SOL to start
New markets are announced in our Telegram group — join to get notified the moment a new market opens.
The earlier you bet, the better your odds. The pool only grows from here.
*Ready to put your predictions where your mouth is? Browse open markets and place your first bet. New markets announced daily in Telegram.*